Mitchell Poll Has Santorum Back On Top

My, my, my. Santorum is back up against Romney in a poll that the pollster told Frank Beckmann last week would stick with Romney on top.

MIRS News:
Rick SANTORUM is back in the lead with 37 percent to Mitt ROMNEY’s 35 percent, which is within the margin of error, in a new MIRS/Mitchell Research poll taken Sunday night.

In the last MIRS/Mitchell poll taken Thursday, Romney had 36 percent to Santorum’s 33 percent, which again was a statistical tie (See “Debate Boosts Romney In New MIRS/Mitchell Poll,” 2/24/12).

“There is an overlay between social and fiscal conservatives,” said Steve MITCHELL, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. “Romney’s strategy had been to win over all conservatives by hammering Santorum on the fact that he is not the fiscal conservative he claimed to be. Up until the weekend, that strategy seemed to be successful. However, Santorum’s push for social conservatives in the past three days seems to have worked and they moved back to him, allowing him to re-take the lead. The volatility we thought had changed has not. The race remains very fluid.”

The poll conducted Sunday by Mitchell and Rosetta Stone Communications had Newt GINGRICH at 9 percent and Ron PAUL at 8 percent and 11 percent undecided.

John GARST of Rosetta Stone Communications said the firms “carefully examined and re-examined our data to make sure it was correct” in light of two other polls showing Romney ahead.

PPP had Romney had 39 percent and Santorum at 37 percent in a Sunday poll (See “PPP: Romney Takes Slight Lead,” 2/25-26/12) and We Ask America had the race at Romney 37 percent and Santorum 34 percent in its Sunday survey, which was outside the margin of error.

Tea Partiers, evangelicals and “very conservatives” have all posted gains for Santorum in the latest survey.

On Thursday, Romney had erased a 16-percent lead Santorum had with Tea Party supporters. In this poll, Santorum is back ahead with those voters by 6 percent. Romney cut a 16 percent Santorum lead among evangelicals to 7 percent on Thursday. Now Santorum has moved his lead out to 19 percent. On Thursday, Romney had cut a 31-percent lead Santorum had with “very conservatives” down to 13 percent. Now that lead is back up to 17 percent.

“Santorum’s strong appeal to social conservatives has been very effective. This race is still very close, but momentum seems to have changed,” Mitchell said. “Get out the vote efforts will really count.”

Romney has fallen in almost every demographic group since Thursday.

Santorum dominates in Grand Rapids media market, 51 percent to Romney’s 19 percent. That’s up from Santorum’s 41 percent to Romney’s 30 percent on Thursday.

Romney clings to a lead in the Detroit media market, 43 percent to Santorum’s 35 percent. On Thursday, Romney had 37 percent to Santorum’s 24 percent.

In other areas of Michigan, the two candidates are about even, with Romney at 35 percent and Santorum at 35 percent. On Thursday, Romney was at 37 percent and Santorum was at 34 percent.

Romney had moved a 10-percent deficit among Republicans to a 9-percent lead on Thursday. Romney’s lead with GOP voters is now down to 1 percent in the Sunday poll. The polling shows that eight in 10 voters are self-identified Republicans (81 percent), up slightly from Thursday night.

The former Massachusetts governor has gained with Democrats, up from 3 percent Thursday to 17 percent Sunday. Santorum still dominates with 30 percent, down from 36 percent.

Romney has made inroads with independents, going from 22 percent Thursday to 32 percent Sunday. But Santorum also gained 10 points, going from 26 percent to 36 percent in the latest poll.

Romney had erased a 23 percent deficit with men, but now Santorum is ahead by 4 percent. Romney’s 7 percent lead with women has now been cut to 1 percent.

The automated telephone survey of 858 likely Republican presidential primary voters has a 3.3 percent margin of error.

We Ask America Poll: Romney 37%, Santorum 34%

Mitt ROMNEY is ahead in the new We Ask America poll with 37 percent to Rick SANTORUM’s 33 percent — just beyond the margin of error.

The poll had Ron PAUL at 18 percent and Newt GINGRICH at 13 percent. There was no option given to be undecided.

“While Romney has pulled out all the stops in his home state and seems poised for a come-from-behind victory, Rick Santorum has hung in against an onslaught of negative ads and a few gaffes of his own doing,” We Ask America writes in its analysis. “If Santorum loses by a close margin, many will question Romney’s ability to close the ultimate deal after a less-than-stellar showing in the Wolverine State.”

The automated survey of 984 likely GOP voters had a 3.1-percent margin of error.